New research, by Newcastle University, UK, has for the first time analysed changes in flooding, droughts and heatwaves for all European cities using all climate models.
Published in the academic journal Environmental Research Letters, the study shows:
Using projections from all available climate models (associated with the high emission scenario RCP8.5 which implies a 2.6°C to 4.8°C increase in global temperature), the team showed results for three possible futures which they called the low, medium and high impact scenarios.
The study shows that even the most optimistic of these -- the low impact scenario -- predicts both the number of heatwave days and their maximum temperature will increase for all European cities.
Southern European cities will see the biggest increases in the number of heatwave days, while central European cities will see the greatest increase in temperature during heatwaves -- between 2°C to 7°C for the low scenario and 8°C to 14°C for the high scenario.
For changes in droughts and floods, the cities which are affected depend on the scenario. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions only intensify in southern European cities while river flooding only worsens in north-western ones.